There May be a Federal Election this fall

There is an increased possibility of a federal election this fall, as all three opposition parties are now balking at supporting the throne speech when parliament resumes on October 16th. Bloc Quebecois Leader, Gilles Duceppe, is considering taking his chances by opposing the throne speech, as he now realizes that the Conservatives, not the Liberals, are the biggest threat to his party’s hold on the seats it has in Quebec. The longer the Bloc waits, the more its influence and support diminishes to the Conservatives.

The Bloc Quebecois has issued a five-point set of demands for the Conservative minority government that appears to be a reaction the party's bruising in byelections earlier this week. It also appears to be setting the stage for a fall election.

List of Bloc Quebecois demands:

• Eliminate all federal spending powers in provincial jurisdictions;
• Respect the Kyoto Protocol and establish targets for greenhouse gas reductions;
• Assistance for workers in the ailing forest industry;
• Changes to supply management for dairy farmers;
• And finally, "non négociable," in the Throne Speech, an announced end to the combat mission in Afghanistan by Feb. 2009

It is unlikely that the federal government will satisfy the Bloc's requirement for respecting the Kyoto protocol, so there is an increased possibility of the Bloc not supporting the throne speech.

NDP leader, Jack Layton as already indicated that the NDP will not support the throne speech, even though they have not even heard it as yet. For the NDP, their best chance may be now, as they are still riding the momentum of their historic win in the Outremont by-election. The longer they wait, the greater their chances of some of their core supporters drifting to the Greens and Liberals.

The Liberals are the party that find themselves in a pickle. They are still in debt from the last leadership convention, have not had good fortunes with Stephane Dion as their leader.

In an article in the Toronto Star, Dion admits that his own image needs polishing. To make matters worse, he is also having a communication issue with members of his own caucus that feel that he is not listening to them.

On Wednesday, staff from Dion's office met with Liberal MPs' staffers, in what was reportedly a frank and sometimes tense exchange over lack of communication among Liberals on Parliament Hill. The main message to the Official Opposition Leader's office, according to staffers who attended the session, was: "You are not listening to us."

Despite this though, several Liberals have indicated that their support for the throne speech will be highly impossible unless the Conservative government revives the C-30 bill. But since the government has already said that the bill will not be revived, Liberal support is not likely.

A fall election would be advantageous to the Conservatives for several reasons.

• They seemed to have lost their focus after last Spring’s budget. A new election campaign will allow them to focus on a new mandate.
• The Conservatives are swimming in cash. They have raised more than 3 times the amount of money raised by the liberals. They now have the means to have an even more effective election campaign than the previous one.
• The Conservatives have largely erased the fear and apprehension that was falsely being spread by the Liberals and their friends in the MSM that was preventing many Canadians from voting for them. Many people no longer see them as composed of extremist elements, bent of introducing social policy.
• The Conservatives have proven that they can govern the country well and conduct sound economic and foreign policy. They are not perfect, but even with the income trust issue and the Afghan detainee issue, they have governed far better than the Liberals.

If the fall elections occur, hopefully this time the Conservatives will get a majority..