Latest Liberal arrest puts a damper on its plans to bring down the Federal Government

The arrest of, Benoit Corbeil, former director-general of the Quebec wing of the federal Liberal Party, in connection with the Sponsorship scandal on Friday, has put a serious dent in the Liberal Party’s plans of forcing a spring election. Especially after the RCMP hinted that more arrests may be imminent.

Corbeil's charmed life as the go-to guy in Quebec began to unravel in 2005 when his fellow Liberals began ratting him out before the Gomery commission investigating federal Liberal campaign financing.

Corbeil was fingered as the man through whom the Liberals funnelled thousands of dollars in secret cash contributions from 1995 to 2001. The funds were kicked back to the party from federal contractors working a sponsorship project designed to polish the federal government's image in Quebec.

For the Liberal party, this arrest could not have occurred at a worst time, especially at the end of what had been a difficult week for the Tories. Many Liberals had believed that their party’s fortunes were on the rise and were eagerly anticipating the prospect of defeating the Conservative government and forcing a federal election in June. On Tuesday, members of the RCMP seized several items from the Conservative party's head office in Ottawa after Elections Canada had obtained a search warrant in connection with a dispute over advertising spending limits during the 2006 general election

Liberals, particularly those in Quebec, do not want an election campaign that might feature fresh headlines from that scandal.

Privately, some Liberal MPs seemed crestfallen at the news.

"Now what?" said one Ontario Liberal MP.

Both the NDP and Bloc Quebecois now believe that a federal election is unlikely until at least the fall.

"I think if this was forest fire season, the hazard just went way down for an election this spring. The Liberals' balloon just got burst once again," said NDP MP, Pat Martin.

My feeling is that the Liberals will back down from forcing a spring election, especially with the Sponsorship scandal coming back in the news, just when the Liberals thought that it was behind them. The Liberals know that in an election campaign, this issue would seriously hurt their chances of gaining additional seats, especially in Quebec, where under Dion, they have failed to make inroads in terms of popular support. Not having a spring election could also work positively for the Conservative government, as it will give them an opportunity to get more of its legislation through the HOC and senate. Stay tuned.

Tony